Retrospective evaluation of preseason forecasting models for sockeye and chum salmon

Abstract

Using comprehensive data sets for chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta (40 stocks) and sockeye salmon O. nerka (37 stocks) throughout their North American ranges, we compared the retrospective performance of 11 models in preseason forecasting of adult abundance. Chum and sockeye salmon have more complicated age structures than pink salmon O. gorbuscha, which we investigated previously (Haeseker et al. 2005), and this complexity presents new challenges as well as opportunities for forecasting. We extended our previous work to include two new forecasting models that make use of leading indicators: either the survival rate of earlier-maturing pink salmon from the same brood year (Ricker pink salmon index model) or the abundance of earlier-maturing siblings (hybrid sibling model, a new version of the standard sibling model). No single forecasting model was consistently the best for either chum or sockeye salmon, but the hybrid sibling model frequently performed best based on mean absolute error, mean percent error, and root mean square error. As was observed for pink salmon, several naive models (i.e., simple time series models without explicitly modeled mechanisms) also performed well, as did forecast averaging models composed of two models with the least-correlated forecasting errors. In general, model ranking depended on the particular stock and performance measure used. However, even the top-ranked model for each stock explained on average only 21% of the observed interannual variation in chum salmon recruitment and only 36% of the variation in sockeye salmon recruitment. Although improvements may be possible for some stocks in specific circumstances, a major breakthrough in general forecasting ability seems unlikely given the breadth of stocks and models examined to date. Therefore, better in-season updates and adjustments to fishing regulations and a cautious approach to opening and closing fisheries should remain high priorities.