Warm, dry conditions prevail across B.C.’s south coast and Interior. Fraser sockeye may see a disappointing year, but Skeena steelhead and Barkley Sound sockeye show promising returns.
This year’s forecast for Fraser sockeye returns was downgraded by 61 per cent – a striking difference from last year, when Fraser sockeye returned in unexpectedly high numbers. This is especially significant for the world-famous Adams River run, since this year marks a “dominant” cycle year.
The Pacific Salmon Commission, which assesses Fraser River salmon in-season, initially predicted a 2026 run size of 7,743,390 Fraser sockeye. As of August 28, that estimate has been reduced to 3,016,000 fish.
Returns of Fraser River sockeye, and Pacific salmon generally, are notoriously difficult to forecast, given the unpredictability of freshwater and marine conditions, especially in a changing climate. Still, experts note that the causes behind this year’s downgrade aren’t fully understood. Marine conditions in recent years have been mixed, but they were likely a contributing factor for some runs.
Fraser River sockeye return in four distinctly timed groups: Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer, and Late.
Fraser sockeye naturally follow a four-year cycle, with 2026 being a dominant year with high returns expected. How does this year’s updated forecast of 3 million fish compare to recent peak years? It’s well below the most recent peak return of 6.7 million in 2022, and far below the 26.9 million that returned in 2010, the largest return in recent memory. Since 2010, sockeye run sizes have steadily declined in peak years in their four-year cycle.
As these fish return to many warm, dry streams in the Fraser River watershed, experts caution that challenging freshwater conditions could cause higher-than-usual pre-spawn mortality.
Despite reduced numbers of Fraser sockeye, Barkley Sound sockeye on the West Coast of Vancouver Island had an impressive season with many fishing opportunities, and Skeena steelhead appear to be defying the odds.
Drought and wildfire work hand in hand
This Fraser sockeye downgrade comes as climate change takes center stage across the province. Severe drought is drying and warming salmon-bearing streams, while more than 100 wildfires burn across the province.
Both drought and wildfire can pose life-threatening challenges to salmon across their life cycle – adding migration barriers, stress, warm waters, and habitat degradation.
The Salmon River, in the Thompson-Okanagan region, shows how tightly knit these pressures are. On August 19, the Province re-issued a temporary fish protection order to limit industrial water use and ensure salmon have sufficient water supply, as 500 Chinook have entered the Salmon River watershed. An earlier fish protection order had been withdrawn due to wildfire risks in the area.
The river is now facing historically low water flows, the culmination of 20 years of worsening drought in the watershed. These conditions can limit spawning success for returning adults and put juveniles still rearing in the river at risk, creating potential consequences for salmon populations over the next five years. With support from PSF and the First Nations Fisheries Council of B.C., Splatsin First Nation and Secwépemc Fisheries Commission are activating drought response measures to monitor and help fish navigate life-threatening conditions.
A record-strong El Niño could prolong warm, dry conditions
An El Niño event officially formed in the Pacific Ocean in June and could persist through fall and winter of 2027. El Niños are naturally recurring climate patterns marked by warm sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. They usually bring warmer-than-average winters to British Columbia.
El Niño years are typically challenging for Pacific salmon. They tend to weaken snowpack, reduce streamflows, and exacerbate drought conditions. In the ocean, they can bring warm waters, lower food availability, and increased predator abundance for salmon.
With B.C. already experiencing several consecutive years of extreme drought, this event all but guarantees drought conditions will continue into next year.
Current forecasts estimate a 90 per cent chance of this becoming a record strong El Niño event – layered on top of an ocean that has already been steadily warming due to climate change. Because that baseline ocean temperature is already elevated, this El Niño could push temperatures to unprecedented levels.
Skeena steelhead and Barkley Sound sockeye
In Northern B.C., Skeena steelhead may become a silver lining this year.
The run is currently tracking its fourth-best year on record. As of August 6, nearly 30,000 steelhead have passed through the Tyee Test Fishery. Just five years ago, Skeena steelhead recorded their worst year on record, with only 5,400 total fish returning. While this year’s numbers are encouraging at this stage of their migration, these steelhead still need to pass through various in-river fisheries before reaching their spawning grounds.
The Skeena watershed produces steelhead that are world-renowned by anglers. Yet their abundance has trended downwards in recent years, with PSF reporting Skeena steelhead as 41 per cent below their long-term average spawner abundance.
Skeena steelhead co-migrate with sockeye stocks. Harvest rates of Skeena sockeye have been reduced in recent decades, in part, to prevent bycatch of steelhead and address conservation concerns.
This year’s encouraging return is welcome news for Skeena steelhead. Drought in the Skeena-Bulkley watershed is minimal compared to many South Coast and Interior areas, and water levels are higher while temperatures are cooler – better conditions for spawning.
On the west coast of Vancouver Island, approximately 860,000 Barkley Sound sockeye returned, exceeding pre-season estimates. Hucuktlis Lake sockeye – the smallest of three distinct groups comprising the Barkley Sockeye Stock Management Unit – is typically the limiting factor for fishing opportunities, since harvesting the larger sockeye groups risks overharvesting this smaller one. This year, Hucuktlis sockeye surpassed their fishery reference point.
The return of large and healthy sockeye in good numbers enabled recreational and commercial fishing opportunities, supporting local communities and economies.
The favourable returns for Barkley Sound sockeye and Skeena steelhead serve as a reminder that salmon can endure and persist. While climate change prevails in headlines and remains as the greatest threat salmon face, these fish have adapted to change for millennia and have continued coming back. But the pace of change today is rapid – a sign that recovery, resilience, and conservation efforts are urgent.
However, salmon monitoring efforts in B.C. have steeply declined, leaving many unknowns that can hinder the development of effective, targeted actions. Some populations aren’t monitored at all, leaving their status unknown. In other cases, it’s unclear what drives some populations to fare better than others.
Looking ahead, sustained resourcing for monitoring a broader diversity of salmon populations, not just commercially valuable stocks, would improve the quality and coverage of salmon data. Improved monitoring would underpin science-backed recovery plans, helping target the most impactful actions we can take to support salmon rebuilding efforts.
This blog was updated on August 28 with the latest numbers from the Pacific Salmon Commission.
